基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级

Tailings pond dam break risk classification study based on both ISM and factor frequency method

为解决尾矿库溃坝因素间关联模式干扰其风险评价分级的问题,总结分析国内外尾矿库溃坝事故致因,筛选出导致尾矿库溃坝的16个因素;引入解释结构模型(ISM),构建尾矿库溃坝解释结构模型,理清尾矿库溃坝因素间的层次隶属关系,结合因素频次法和层次分析法(AHP),设计一种不依赖人为主观判断的权重确定方法,计算模型中各因素的权重;依据尾矿库重大危险源辨识与分级标准,构建尾矿库溃坝风险分级方法,并应用该方法确定某尾矿库的溃坝风险级别。结果表明:基于ISM和因素频次法的尾矿库溃坝风险分级结果与工程实际情况一致,该方法能够避免因素之间的关联关系对尾矿库溃坝风险分级结果的影响。

To solve the problem that the correlative modes between factors causing tailings dam-break interfere with the assessment and classification of the risks,the causes of tailings dam-break accidents at home and abroad were summarized and analyzed. Sixteen factors leading to tailings dam-break were screened out. The ISM was introduced to construct an interpretative structure model for tailings dam-break,and the factors of tailings dam-break were sorted out. Based on the hierarchical membership relationship,combined with the factor frequency method and the AHP,a method of determining the weight independent of subjective judgment was designed to calculate the weight of each factor in the model.According to the criteria of identification and classification of major hazards in tailings reservoir,a risk classification method for tailings dam break was worked out and applied to a certain tailings dam in China.The results show that the risk classification result of the tailings dam based on ISM and the factor frequency method conforms with the reality,and that the method can avoid the influence of the correlation between factors on the risk classification results of tailings dam break.