基于安全论证法的铁路运营安全评价

Research on safety evaluation index of railway operation based on safety analects

为保障铁路运营安全,首先,构建铁路运营安全评价指标体系;然后,采用改进的层次分析(AHP)法与熵权法,以D市火车站为例,确定各影响因素的权重并加以修正;最后,筛选权重较大的影响因素,基于安全论证法,论证出根本致因风险,并论证风险防范方式。研究结果表明:影响铁路运营安全的权重占比较大的几个因素包括:车辆因素、轨道及设备因素及监督管理因素,行车技术、铁路人员及行车设备是影响这几大因素的根本致因;风险防范方式包括:根除风险、减小风险发生的概率以及减轻风险造成的负影响。

In order to ensure the safety of railway operations,firstly,the index system of safety evaluation of railway operation was established. Then,while the improved AHP method and entropy method was used to take D city railway station as an example,the weight of the influencing factors was determined and corrected. Finally,the influencing factors with lower weights were screened. Based on the security argument method,the root cause risk was demonstrated,and the way of risk prevention was demonstrated. The results show that the weight factors that affect the safety of railway operations include:vehicle factors, track and equipment factors, and supervisory and administrative factors. Driving technology,railway personnel and driving equipment are the root causes of these major factors. Risk precautions include: eliminating risk,reducing the probability of risk occurrence,and mitigating the negative impact of risk.