危险货物道路运输风险评估的集对模型及应用

A risk assessment model for hazmat road transportation based on set pair analysis and its application

为解决现有危险货物道路运输风险评估方法的不足,在考虑危险货物道路运输风险的不确定性、随机性和动态性特征的基础上,建立基于区间层次分析法(IAHP)和集对分析法(SPA)的风险评估模型。首先给出危险货物道路运输风险评估模型及评估的基本步骤,根据危险品道路运输风险影响因素建立风险评估指标体系,利用区间层次分析法(IAHP)计算指标权重;然后采用SPA法研究危险品道路运输风险指标及其评估等级的同异反确定不确定特性,并利用联系度和集对势分析定量给出风险等级及风险因素的动态变化;最后以某企业近段的危险货物道路运输过程为例,利用所建模型评估风险并计算分析。结果表明:SPA可识别风险因素的变化趋势,风险评估结果与道路运输实际风险情况基本符合。

The paper was aimed at overcoming the deficiencies of current risk assessment methods for hazmat road transportation.Typical characteristics of the risk in the transportation,including its uncertainty,randomness and dynamics,were examined.A novel risk assessment method for hazmat road transportation was worked out on the basis of both IAHP and SPA.A risk assessment model was built for this method and its calculation steps,being establishing a risk assessment index system according to the risk factors on hazmat road transportation,using IAHP to obtain the weights of assessment indexes,making a same-different-opposite analysis for the certainty-uncertainty system of hazmat road transportation,and studying the dynamic change of risk factors according to connection degree,were presented.The method was applied to assessment of risk in the recent hazmat road transportation of a certain enterprise taken as an example.The results show that the risk assessment grade is basically in accord with the reality,and that SPA can be used to assess the risk factors of hazmat road transportation and their change trends,which provides a solid foundation for the prevention and control of hazmat road transportation accidents.