摘要
为量化极端暴雨洪涝灾害导致企业业务中断的风险,并识别导致中断发生的关键因素,分析2008年以来新闻报道的183例企业因洪涝受灾的案例,利用故障树映射方法构建企业业务中断风险贝叶斯网络(BN)模型;通过模糊集理论(FST)降低案例数据的不确定性,优化该BN模型的概率推理过程,并通过灵敏度分析识别出业务中断的关键因素。结果表明:洪涝灾害情景下,国内企业业务中断风险为35. 5%,供水中断及供电中断等2个因素是洪涝灾害情景下导致企业业务中断最关键的风险因素。
In order to identify the risk factors and estimate the probability of firms’inoperation caused by extreme heavy rain and flood disaster,183 news reports of business interruption due to flood disaster since2008 were analyzed,and a BN for business interruption based on the fault tree method was constructed.FST was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of database and to optimize fuzzy probability reasoning process.The sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify the key factors of business interruption.The results show that the business interruption risk of enterprises in China is 35.5%under the extreme heavy rain and flood disaster,and that the two main critical risk factors are water supply interruption and power supply interruption.
作者
宋英华
马连隆
杨丽娇
蒋新宇
SONG Yinghua;MA Lianlong;YANG Lijiao;JIANG Xinyu(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期1-6,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(41807504)
