独生子女的“体制内”就业偏向——来自CHFS2011的经验证据

The Only Child’s Employment Preference for In-system Units——The Evidence from CHFS2011

缘于缺少兄弟姐妹的社会互动和资源稀释,独生子女可能有更低风险偏好的个性特征,进而使得独生子女可能比非独生子女更偏向进入工作稳定性高的'体制内'部门就业。使用2011年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS2011)数据,工具变量方法估计发现,独生子女与非独生子女在事业单位和国有企业等外围'体制内'部门就业的概率并不存在显著的差异,但独生子女在党政机关等核心'体制内'部门就业的概率显著地高于非独生子女。进一步估计显示,更低的风险偏好显著提高了劳动力在党政机关等'体制内'部门就业的概率,且独生子女可能的确比非独生子女有更低的风险偏好。这意味着,中国曾经实行的独生子女政策可能是造成'国考热'持续升温的一个潜在原因,且独生子女政策也可能因此造成了严重的人才误置,进而不利于长期经济增长。

Because of lacking social interactions and resource dilution with siblings, only child may have a lower risk preference, and it makes them prefer being employed in-system units. Using survey data of CHFS in 2011, this paper find that there is no significant differences between only child and non-only child in the probability of being employed in peripheral in-system units, such as public institutions and state-owned enterprises, but only child has a significantly higher probability of seeking jobs in core in-system units such as party and government institutions. What is more, person’s lower risk preference has obviously increased the probability of being employed in party and government institutions, and only child’s risk preference is lower than non-only child. This means only child policy may be a potentially cause persistent overheating of national civil servant examination in China, and it will not be helpful to long run economic growth because of serious talent misallocation.