减税推动产业结构升级了吗?——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

Can Tax Reduction Promote the Upgrading of the Industrial Structure:An Empirical Study Based on the Provincial Data of China

新常态下,减税作为供给侧结构性改革的重要举措,能否推进产业结构升级?文章利用1999~2015年中国省级面板数据,运用工具变量法分析税收收入对产业结构的影响,研究结果显示,减税能够推进产业结构升级。进一步深入创新研究主要税种税收收入增减对产业结构的影响,发现增加增值税、减少营业税和个人所得税,有利于产业结构优化,而消费税和企业所得税对产业结构的影响不显著。

Under the new normal, can tax reduction, which is an important measure of Supply-Side Structural Reform, promote the upgrading of industrial structure? This article uses the provincial panel data of China from year 1999-2015 to analyze the effect of tax revenue on industrial structure with the instrumental variable method, the results show that tax reduction can promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Researching the impact of the main taxes on industrial structure in depth, we have found that increasing the VAT, reducing business tax and personal income tax can promote the upgrading of industrial structure, consumption tax and enterprise income tax has no significant impact on industrial structure.