基于分层线性模型的农地租金研究

Farmland Rent Decision based on Hierarchical Liner Models

在二元分割的土地市场中,农地租金受到城市地价的影响。本文基于'信号—价格'理论分析和分层线性模型估计,得到实证结论如下:第一,土地出让价格的逐年攀升会使人们普遍形成土地升值预期,通过计算'噪音—信号'比率指标,发现土地出让价格上涨可以作为农地租金上涨的外部'信号'。第二,土地出让价格上涨推动了农地细碎化程度高的地区提高转出租金,减少了农地细碎化对农地转出租金贡献率的区域异质性。本文的政策建议是:农村土地要素具有资源和资产双重属性,蕴含着资产投资决策空间,一方面需要健全城市土地出让价格机制促进农地市场发育,另一方面需要对农地租金实施价格预期管理。

In the binary division of rual and city land market,farmland rents are affected by urban land prices.Based on the theory of'signal-price'and the hierarchical linear model estimation,the empirical conclusions are as follows:First,the gradual increase of land transfer price will lead to the widespread expectation of land appreciation.By calculating the'noise-signal'ratio indicator,Land transfer price increases can be used as an external'signal'of farmland rent increases.Second,the increase of the land transfer price has promoted the increase of the rents in areas with high degree of fragmentation of farmland and reduced the contribution rate of the fragmentation of farmland to the transfer of rents from farmland Regional heterogeneity.The policy recommendations of this paper are as follows:rural land resources have the dual attributes of resources and assets,which contain the space for decision-making of assets investment.On the one hand,we need to improve the urban land transfer pricing mechanism to promote the development of agricultural land market,on the other hand we need to forecast the price of agricultural land rent management.