对美出口商品增设关税对中国经济的影响——基于CGE方法

The Impacts on Extra Tariff of Export to US from Chinese in Multisector CGE Model

基于静态单国可计算一般均衡模型,包含42个行业,两个国外账户,本文实证模拟了对美出口全部商品增设7%~12%关税对中国整体和行业影响。结果表明,对美出口商品关税提高到10%,对中国经济产生的影响为:(1)GDP损失3.5%;(2)农村家庭、城市家庭支出均减少约4.5%,与要素收入降低同步;(3)人民币汇率贬值和国内通缩压力较大;(4)其他国家更多出口增加,与美国有替代效应,同时国内生产商品替代进口商品;(5)行业对要素需求减少存在异质性,对非出口行业的间接作用显著。

This paper uses static CGE model to evaluate the impacts on 10% extra tariff with all the export goods to US from China.The results show that trade war would slow down GDP growth rate about 3.5% and press a great pressure on CNY depreciation as well as the deflation in domestic.Second,the income from factors and expenditure of various households has decreased.Third,instead of shipping commodities to US,the rest of world imports more goods from china.Anyway china prefers to buy the production made by themselves so that import decreasing sharply.At the end,we need to pay attention to the indirect effects from trade war and also these industries cut off their production and employments.