贸易便利化对中国和东盟国家贸易流量影响的实证分析

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Trade Facilitation on the Trade Flows among China and ASEAN Countries

随着2010年中国—东盟FTA的全面实施,成员间的关税水平大大削减,然而,2015年双边贸易流量的发展却出现了下降的势头。贸易便利化水平的提高能否成为可持续地推进双边贸易的重要手段?本文首先运用2006—2015年的口岸效率、海关环境、规制环境、电子商务以及金融服务5个指标,采用Wilson贸易便利化水平测评体系的构建思想,测定了中国和东盟国家贸易便利化水平和动态发展趋势。其次利用扩展的引力模型,实证分析了贸易便利化对中国东盟之间贸易流量的影响,并根据回归结果,进一步测算了中国对东盟国家的贸易潜力。研究结果表明:中国和东盟主要国家贸易便利化水平不高,存在较大上行空间。贸易便利化对贸易流量的促进作用远远大于关税消减的效应;进出口国家的贸易便利化对双边贸易流量均有显著促进作用,但出口国家的促进效果更显著。中国与东盟国家在贸易便利化方面应采取积极措施,进一步加强合作促进贸易便利化水平升级,以实现贸易潜力再造和合作共赢。

With the full implementation of CAFTA in 2010,the tariff level among the members has been greatly reduced. However,the bilateral trade flows declined in 2015. Could the improvement of trade facilitation be an important means to promote bilateral trade eventually? Applying Wilson’s design idea of assessment system of trade facilitation,this paper firstly measures the level and the trend of the trade facilitation for China and ASEAN countries with five important indicators during 2006-2015 including port efficiency,customs environment, regulation environment, electronic-business and financial services. Secondly,we analyze the impact of trade facilitation on trade flows between China and ASEAN in an extended gravity model,and further estimate the potential trade according to the regression results. The results show that the level of trade facilitation of China and ASEAN countries is low,there being large upside space. The effect of trade facilitation on trade flows is much greater than that of tariff reduction. Both the trade facilitation of importing and exporting countries have significant influence on bilateral trade flows,but the facilitation of exporting countries is more outstanding. China and ASEAN countries should take active measures in the reform of trade facilitation and strengthen mutual cooperation to promote the level of trade facilitation,reshape trade potential and realize win-win cooperation.