沙特站在十字路口——当前沙特主要困境及政策调整

Saudi Arabia in the Crossroads——The Contemporary Dilemmas and Adjustments for Saudi Arabia

沙特立国主要依靠石油、宗教和沙特—美国关系三大支柱。但近些年来,沙特三大支柱均面临挑战:页岩气革命动摇了沙特传统能源大国地位;沙特—美国共同利益的减少削弱了双方战略合作根基;极端主义反噬使沙特自食其果。在此背景下,沙特积极谋求以变求存:经济领域提出'2030愿景';宗教领域强化'去极端化'举措;外交上谋求外交多元化。但沙特面临的问题积重难返,非短期的政策调整所能奏效。

The development of Saudi Arab depends on oil,religious and the Saudi—U. S. relation. But these three pillars have been challenged in recent years. Shale gas revolution shaken the status of Saudi Arabia's traditional status of energy power,the decrease of common interests of two countries weaken the foundation of bilateral strategic cooperation,and Saudi Arab reaps as one has sown for support extremism. In this background,Saudi Arabia is actively seeking to survive by changing. Saudi Arabia has put forward the“2030 vision”in the economic field,taken the policy of de-extremism in the religious,and pursuing diplomatic pluralism in diplomacy. But Saudi Arab has faced the structural challenge,which is not successful for short-term policy adjustments.