电力系统连锁故障的多层时序运行演化模型与应用

Cascading Failure Feature Analysis Based on Time-series Operation Evolution Model

为研究电网大停电事故的宏观安全特征,并揭示连锁故障过程中呈现的微观脆弱环节,提出多层时序运行演化模型对连锁故障进行模拟。该模型由运行内层、时序中层及演化外层构成,较传统仿真模型在负荷时序规则、故障传播方式及电网建设等方面均具有更加合理的设置,能够较为真实地反映电网运行、发展与连锁故障的关系。采用IEEE 300节点系统和某省级实际电网作为连锁故障仿真算例,结合电网自组织临界性与负荷损失时序特性,说明所建模型揭示更加了符合实际的连锁故障宏观安全特征;同时,针对仿真结果所揭示的脆弱线路、重要无功支撑节点及故障线路同步性等电网脆弱环节,与已有方法和指标进行对比,验证了所建模型亦可用于揭示电网微观脆弱环节辨识。

In order to simulate the cascading failure reasonably and reveal the vulnerable characteristics during the cascading failures of the power grid, time-series operation evolution model, a simulation model consisting of three interactive calculation modules, cascade trigger layer, operation condition layer, and infrastructure upgrade layer, was proposed in this paper. Compared with traditional simulation model, it have progress in load increasing over time, the way of the fault spread and the grid construction, so that the model can simulate the cascading in a more reasonable way. Taking the IEEE 300-bus system and a real power system as the examples, it proved the validity and rationality of the model through the self-organized criticality of the power grid and time-varying load demand; furthermore, compared the vulnerable characteristics that emerged in the cascading such as frequent fault lines,important nodes and the synchronous correlation of outage lines, with the other index and methods, which proved the result of the model can be useful to prevent the blackout.