穿越“环境高山"——论经济增长过程中环境负荷的上升和下降

Crossing "Environmental Mountain" ——on the Increase and Decrease of Environment Impact in the Process of Economic Growth

把描绘发达国家经济增长过程中的环境负荷曲线比喻成"环境高山"。强调了发展中国家,尤其是中国,发展经济的正确之路是:从"环境高山"的半山腰穿过去,走新型工业化道路。推导了环境负荷与GDP之间的关系式,其中GDP年增长率g和单位GDP环境负荷年下降率t是两个关键变量。以一些国家和中国的一些省份为实例,分析了经济增长与能源消费量之间的关系。在不同的假设条件下,计算了2005,2010,2020年中国的环境负荷,并以能源消耗为例,作了进一步的说明。

The curve of environmental impact in the process of economic growth in developed countries was likened to "Environmental Mountain". For developing countries, particularly China, the right way of economic development is going through the "Environmental Mountain" on the halfway up the mountain-a new way for industrialization. The formulas of the relationship between environmental impact and GDP were derived, in which there are 2 key variables: g - growth rate of GDP; t - decreasing rate of environmental impact per unit GDP. Taking several countries and provinces in China as examples, the relationships between economic growth and energy consumption were studied. The environmental impacts of China in the years 2005, 2010 and 2020 were anticipated under different assumptions, and further discussion was given in terms of energy consumption.