基于“压力-状态-响应”模型的地方政府债务风险评价

Assessment for Local Government Debt Risk Based on "Pressure-State-Response" Model

从中国地方政府债务所特有的基本实际出发,构建了地方政府债务风险的'压力-状态-响应'评价模型,在明确地方政府举债压力、债务规模、偿债能力与债务风险形成的逻辑关系的基础上,利用31个省(自治区、直辖市)相关数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:中国西部地区举债压力明显较高,但偿债能力明显较低;东部地区债务规模高,但偿债能力强,举债压力小;中部地区介于二者之间。仅从债务规模数据判断地方政府债务风险有失偏颇,整体来看中国各省市地方政府债务风险差异并不大,但是西部地区存在举债压力与偿债能力不匹配的状态。结合债务风险发生的理论逻辑从遏制地方政府过度举债冲动、化解地方政府存量债务规模、提升地方政府偿债能力等三个方面提出了防控地方政府债务风险的政策建议。

Based on the basic situation of local government debt in our country,this paper constructs a'Pressure-State-Response'model for the evaluation of local government debt risk.On the basis of analyzing the logical relationship of debt pressure,debt size,solvency and debt risk,empirical analysis is made by using data from 31 provinces which include autonomous regions and municipalities in China.The results show that the debt pressure is higher in western China,but the debt paying ability is obviously lower;eastern China has high debt scale,strong debt paying ability and low debt pressure;the situation in central China is between the two.It is unfair to judge the local government’s debt risk only from the data of debt size.On the whole,there is no much difference in local government debt risk in China,while there is a mismatch between debt pressure and debt paying ability in western China.Combining the theory of debt risk occurrence logic,this paper puts forward some suggestions of the prevention and control of local government’s debt risk in three aspects,which include taking away the urge to the binge of borrowing,reducing the size of their existing debts and enhancing their ability to repay.