人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响研究——基于浙江省11个市级地区面板数据回归分析

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading——Regression Analysis Based on Panel Data of 11 Cities in Zhejiang Province

人口对产业发展而言是基石,人口老龄化会从劳动力的供给方面和消费需求方面影响产业结构升级。该文在理论上总结了人口老龄化对产业结构影响的机制,构建了产业升级指标,以老龄人口占比和少儿人口占比作为核心解释变量,并引入城市化率、国有化程度、国外直接投资和服务业集聚这些控制变量,运用回归模型实证检验2006-2015年间浙江省11个市人口老龄化对浙江省产业结构的影响及作用大小。研究结果表明,浙江省人口老龄化会促进浙江省产业结构升级,服务业集聚对产业结构升级具有非线性影响;人口老龄化对区域产业结构升级的影响存在差别,人口老龄化对浙东北影响程度较高,浙西南影响较弱。

Population is the basis of industrial development.Population aging will affect the upgrading of industrial structure from the aspects of labor supply and consumption demand.This paper summarizes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population aging on industrial structure,constructs the index of industrial upgrading,takes the proportion of the elderly population and the proportion of children population as the core explanatory variables,and introduces the control variables of urbanization rate,nationalization degree,foreign direct investment and service industry agglomeration.This paper uses regression models to empirically test the impact of the aging of 11 cities in Zhejiang Province on industrial structure upgrading from 2006 to 2015.The results show that the aging population in Zhejiang Province will promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the growth of tertiary industry;Service industry agglomeration has a non-linear impact on industrial structure upgrading.The impact of population aging on the upgrading of regional industrial structure is different,the impact of population aging on Northeastern Zhejiang is higher,and the impact of southwestern Zhejiang is weaker.