基于系统动力学的短生命周期产品需求预测方法比较研究

Using a System Dynamics Approach for ComparingForecast Methodsof ShortLife-Cycle Products' Demand

为了比较指数平滑和BASS模型两种需求预测方法对供应链库存产生的影响,本文建立了一个基于系统动力学的三阶段短生命周期产品供应链模型。采用两种方法预测的需求值,分析其对供应链中各级库存和市场需求满足的影响。为了突出短生命周期产品的特点,文章设置了两种情况下的安全库存函数进行仿真实验。仿真结果表明:BASS模型预测的需求数据使得供应链库存小于指数平滑法下的供应链库存;同时BASS模型预测的需求数据带来的市场需求满足度高于指数平滑法下的市场需求满足度。

In this paper,in order to compare the impact of exponential smoothing and BASS model onthe supply chain,three-echelon supply chainmodelof short life- cycle products is established using the system dynamics.By using the demand forecast value of the two methods,their differences in echelon inventory and market satisfaction are analyzed.For highlighting the characteristics of the short life-cycle products,two cases of safety stock function are set in the simulation experiment.The simulation results show that the demand forecast value of the BASS model results in lower inventory and better market satisfaction than that of exponential smoothing.