单峰有界对称分布下信息风险在供应链的传导

The Transmission of Information Risk in Supply Chains under Mono-Peaked, Bounded and Symmetric Distributions

针对现有文献未能直接研究由信息噪声引致的信息风险在供应链中的传导问题,本文利用批发价合同构建节点企业(零售商和制造商)间的动态博弈模型,以研究信息噪声扰动对供应链节点企业业绩及其方差的影响。基于模型均衡,研究信息风险(用信息扰动的方差测度)如何在供应链上传导,进而如何影响企业期望业绩。结果表明,(1)制造商期望业绩不随信息风险改变,但零售商期望业绩在高中低状态分别受到信息风险的影响程度不同;(2)信息风险对零售商及制造商业绩方差的影响(信息风险的传导)由"判断效应"与"决策效应"决定。

Noting that little attention is directly paid to the transmission of information risk due to noisy information on uncertain demand,a wholesale price contract is used in this paper to build a dynamic supply chain model with a retailer and a manufacturer so as to examine the impact information noise on node firms' performance and its variance.With the equilibrium,how information risk(measured by the variance of information noise) is transmitted in the supply chain is studied and its impact on firms' expected performance is further examined.The results show that(1) the manufacturer' s expect performance does not change with information risk,while the impact of information on the retailer' s expected performance depends on whether the observed demand state is high,mediate or low;(2) the impact of information risk on the retailer' s and the manufacturer' s performance variance(i.e.information risk transmission) is determined via comparing the judgment effect and the decision effect.