基于STIRPAT和GM(1,1)模型的北京能源碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测

The Influencing Factor Analysis and Trend Forecasting of Beijing Energy Carbon Emission Based on STIRPAT and GM(1,1)Model's

本文利用STIRPAT模型对影响北京市1990年-2010年的碳排放因素进行了分析,并利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了北京市2011年-2015年碳排放强度。研究结果显示:人口、城市化率、人均GDP、煤炭消费比例和机动车保有量对碳排放有促进作用,而能源消耗强度和第三产业比例对碳排放有抑制作用;对北京碳排放影响最大的因素是城市化率;利用GM(1,1)预测可以得出,2015年北京市的碳排放强度将是2005年的34.75%,降幅为65.25%,远远好于全国的减排标准。本文认为,为降低碳排放,实现减排目标,北京市应加强交通管理,优化能源消费结构和产业结构,大力开发新能源,开展和普及低碳宣传。

STIRP AT model is used to study the factors that impact on the Beijing carbon emissions based on data from 1990 to 2010.Then,the gray GM(1,1) model is used to forecast the carbon emission strength of Beijing from2011 to 2015.The result of study shows that population,city changes rate,per capital GDP,coal consumption rate and the vehicle population in Beijing on carbon emissions have simulative effect and energy consumption intensity and the tertiary industry proportion on carbon emissions play a curbed role;the biggest factor is the impact of carbon emissions in Beijing city changes rate;By using the GM(1,1) the 2015 Beijing city carbon intensity is predicted to be 34.75%in 2005 and drop to 65.25%,far better than the national emission standards.It is believed that to achieve emission reduction targets and reduce carbon emissions,Beijing should strengthen traffic management,optimize energy consumption structure and industrial structure,develop new sources and strengthen low- carbon propaganda.