基于X-13A-S方法的小麦价格季节性波动分析

Analysis about Seasonal Fluctuation of Wheat Prices Based on X-13A-S Method

粮食安全现在已经成为我国经济工作的重点,粮价的波动也引起人们的广泛关注。本文以美国的冬小麦为研究对象,运用最新的季节调整方法——X-13A-S方法,分析了小麦价格的季节性波动。分析表明,小麦价格的波动存在季节性,其中,夏秋两季引起小麦价格下跌,而春冬两季引起小麦价格上涨,这与小麦的生长周期基本保持一致;同时发现,不规则因素是小麦价格短期变化的主要原因,而趋势循环因素决定小麦价格的长期变化。

Nowadays,food security has become the focus of our country's economic work,and the volatility of food prices has aroused people's attention.In this paper,the American winter wheat is selected as research object,and the seasonal fluctuations of wheat prices is analyzed by using the latest seasonal adjustment method-X-13A-S method.The empirical results show that the fluctuation of wheat prices exist seasonality.The wheat price will fall in summer and autumn,while has a rise in spring and winter.These characteristics are same with the growth cycle of the wheat.Moreover,it indicates that the irregular factors are the main reason caused short-term changes of wheat prices,and the trend cycle factors determine the long-term changes of wheat prices.