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基于后评估的科技成果评价导向模拟分析研究 被引量:1

Random Simulations of Science and Technology Evaluation Trends in Ex-post Measure procedure
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摘要 本文从国内外项目后评估发展现状及评价方法入手,在总结专家学者现有研究方法的基础上,对后评估的理论和方法进行了对比分析。基于此,本文设计出了一种基于权重和方法组合的评价导向随机模拟算法,结合主成分分析(PCA)和逼近理想解排序(TOPSIS)两种评价方法,将二者的评估结果通过设置权重进行加权综合。并以某大型国有企业参评国家技术发明奖为例,运用该模拟算法得到各个评价指标的权重值,通过分析指标权重的相对大小,对未来申报国家技术发明奖的项目提供了可供参考的改进方向。本文的随机模拟算法能够很好的解决原始数据单一、样本较少的弊端,挖掘出了评价的导向性指标。随着后续研究的深入,研究样本的丰富,评价方法集合的拓展,指标体系的完善和新技术的引进,利用该模拟算法对权重值不断调整,可使系统评价的准确性不断提升。 Starting by the development of post evaluation theory and methods at home and abroad,and on the basis of summarizing the existing research of the domestic and foreign experts and scholars,the theories and methods of post evaluation are analyzed.Based on this,by combining the evaluation methods of PCA and TOPSIS and scoring the final ranking result by setting up the weights of both evaluation results,an algorithm about random simulations is designed.A state-owned enterprise during its application for STIA award is set as an example.By applying the algorithm on this case the weight of each evaluation index is obtained and the relative value of each index is analyzed,Some pertinent suggestions are made for future applying for STIA award.The algorithm about random simulations offers a good solution for the disadvantages of single originate data and limited data samples and excavates the oriented evaluation index system.As the delving into research,the enriching of samples,the enlarging of evaluation methods sets,the improving of index system,the introducing of new techniques,the constantly adjusting the index weights by using the algorithm,the accuracy of the evaluation system can be continuously improved.
出处 《中国管理科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第S1期90-94,共5页 Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金 国家电网公司2014年科技计划项目(Y400491401)
关键词 科技奖励 后评估 评价导向 随机模拟 S&T reward ex-post measure oriented evaluation random simulations
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