基于可打断的双目标项目组合选择模型研究

Study of Bi-objective Project Portfolio Selection Model Based on the Divisibility

近年来,项目组合选择问题引起人们越来越多的关注。现有的项目组合选择模型往往以单一净收益或者单一效用为目标,而效用目标模型把净收益作为其中一个评价标准用专家打分法进行评判。但是,实际中由于项目的生产准备成本、排序等因素的影响导致专家评分下的净收益不能很好的满足我们的要求,故本文在考虑上述因素的前提下根据对未来情况的预测得到量化的收益净现值,并以其作为所构建模型的一个目标。而效用目标中所考虑的项目风险性、可行性和市场需求又是衡量项目是否被选择的重要标准。因此,本文在考虑项目可打断的基础上构建了一个净现值和效用并存的双目标项目组合选择模型,并通过实际算例进行分析。结果表明:基于双目标的项目组合选择模型比单一目标更加符合企业长期发展战略,同时也为投资决策者进行项目组合选择提供了较完善的理论依据。

In recent years,project portfolio selection problem has attracted much attention.The existing models often take net return or utility as objective of project selection.In general,the score of net return which evaluated by experts marking can't reach our goal due to the setup cost,the order and so on.Considering the above factors according to the forecast for the future,the net present value is obtained.However,the project risk,feasibility and market demand which are in the models on the goal of utility are the important standards for whether the project can be selected.Therefore,a bi-objective project portfolio selection model including net present value and utility on the basis of the divisibility of project is built,and then one numerical example is given to illustrate the model.The result shows that the bi-objective project portfolio selection model is more suitable to the long-term development strategy of enterprises,and perfect theoretical basement is also provided to investment decision-makers for selecting the appreciate projects.