考虑乘客有限理性的Littlewood存量分配模型

The Littlewood Capacity Allocation Model with Bounded-Rational Passengers

不同于已有的收益管理模型将乘客行为认定为短视或绝对理性的假设,本文考虑了乘客的有限理性行为特征,在此基础上对经典的Littlewood存量控制模型进行了修正计算。本文以民航客运为行业背景,用离散选择模型刻画低票价乘客的选择行为,采用Kahneman和Tversky的价值函数度量乘客效用,并选取乘客支付意愿为参考点,基于此乘客决策规则计算低票价乘客的转移概率,以此修正高票价需求分布,计算最终的存量分配方案。算例分析结果表明,修正后的计算方法能够显著增加航班收益。

Classical Littlewood model is improved based on the assumption that the customers' behavior is bounded-rational.The improved model is different from the current revenue management models that assume the customers myopic or absolutely rational.Firstly the airline passengers' behavior is described.Discrete choice model is used to characterize low-price passengers' choice behavior,Kahneman and Tversky's value function is introduced to measure passengers' utility,and passengers' reserve value is chosen as reference point.Based on these decision rules,the transfer probability of the low-price passengers is calculated,the demand distribution of the high-price passengers is modified,and the final capacity allocation is computed.The numerical example shows that the improved model can significantly improve the flight's revenue.