新疆向西开放与经济增长的灰色关联分析

The Opening to the West Of Xinjiang And Its' Grey Correlation Analysis With Economic Growth

首先,界定了新疆向西开放的概念,提出了向西开放度的测算方法,并进行了测度。然后,运用灰色关联度的分析方法对新疆向西开放与经济增长的关系进行了分析,研究得出,2001~2012年间,向西开放度呈倒U型,2009年是拐点,向西开放度均值是18.94%;2012年向西开放度是16.46%,占新疆对外开放度的77.76%。新疆向西出口对经济增长的关联度是60.65%,新疆向西进口对经济增长是关联度是59.16%。新疆向西开放占新疆对外开放的75%以上,新疆向西开放出口依存度和进口依存度是新疆经济增长的主要促进因素,且出口贡献大于进口。因此,应进一步扩大向西开放的水平,提升新疆经济发展水平,为实现新疆跨越式发展与长治久安两大战略目标奠定基础,共同开发建设丝绸之路经济带。

First of all,the concept of the opening to the west of Xinjiang is defined,then the measure method of its level is put forward and worked out.Secondly,relation between the opening to the west of Xinjiang and economic growth is analyzed using the grey correlation analysis method.The result says that the level of the opening to the west seems like a invert u-shape and the average level of it is 18.94 percents during the years 2001 to 2012,also the year 2009 is a turning point;the level of the opening to the west in2012 is 16.46 percents,which occupy 77.76 percents of the open degree of Xinjiang.The comprehensive correlative degree between exports to the west and economic growth is 60.65 percents,while 59.16 percents between import to the west and economic growth.The opening to the west accounts for more than 75 percents of Xinjiang's opening degree,and both export and import to the west can promote Xinjiang's economic development and export is the main factor.Therefore,' Xinjiang should open wider to the west and promote the level of economic development in order to lay the foundation for two strategic goals of achieving leapfrog development and lasting stability in Xinjiang,in the hopes of constructing and developing the Silk Road Economic Belt together.