技术冲击、碳排放与气候环境——基于DICE模型框架的模拟

Technology Impact,Carbon Emissions and Climate Environment Based on Economy and Climate Simulation——In the Framework of DICE Model

本文基于DICE模型的框架建立了一个经济一气候综合反馈响应模型,在不确定技术的假定下以2000年为起点,模拟了100年间我国经济产出、工业碳排放量以及全球大气温度的变化趋势。模拟的结果显示2050年大气温度将在2000年的基础上上升约2摄氏度。另外,本文研究了产出、资本存量、消费、工业碳排放量以及全球大气温度对一般生产技术和能源相关技术冲击的响应,研究表明两种技术冲击的传导路径、变量对冲击的响应机制是截然不同的。一般生产技术冲击对产出的影响是直接和同步的,能源相关技术对工业碳排放量的影响是直接和同步的,在两种技术共同作用下对大气温度和工业碳排放量的影响方向是不确定的。最后,本文给出了关于政府R&D资金配置结构的相关政策建议。

In this paper,based on the DICE model,the framework of a comprehensive economic—climate reactive model is established.Under the assumption of uncertain technology and the year 2000 as a starting point,China's economic output,industrial carbon emissions and global atmospheric temperature change trend during the 100 years are simulated.The results show that the air temperature in 2050 will rise about2 degrees Celsius contracting with 2000.In addition,the output,capital,consumption,industrial carbon emissions and global atmospheric temperature which will have a general response to the impact of production technology and energy-related technology are studied.Further more,studies have proved that the conduction paths of the two technological impacts and the response mechanism from variables to the impacts are quite different.The impact of general production technology on the output is directly and synchronization,and the influence of energy-related technology industrial carbon emissions is also directly and synchronization.However under the direction of the two technologies,the influence on the industrial carbon emissions and the atmospheric temperature is uncertain.Finally,the relevant policy recommendations on government R&D funding allocation structure are give.