基于FT-BDD法的导弹研制技术风险分析

Technology Risk Analysis of Missile Development Based on FT-BDD

针对导弹研制的技术风险特点,基于故障树理论建立技术风险逻辑结构,利用R-FT对导弹研制阶段技术风险进行概率计算和影响分析。将R-FT通过BDD方法转化为只含有基本风险事件的BDD逻辑关系图,直接对底事件进行定性、定量分析。描述了基于FT-BDD方法对导弹研制阶段技术风险进行分析的整体思路和实现途径。

According to the characteristics of the technology risk during the missile development process,the logical structure of the technology risk is established based on fault tree theory,and the R-FT is applied to calculate the probability and analyze the influence of the technology risk during the missile development process.The R-FT is converted to the BDD logic diagram which only contains basic risk events by BDD,and then directly analyze the bottom events qualitatively and quantitatively.Based on FT-BDD,the whole way and realization approach of the technology risk analysis is provided during the missile development process.