政策不确定性对可再生能源电力投资影响研究——基于实物期权理论证明与分析

Study of Real Option Decisions under the Effects of Policy Uncertainty on Investment of Renewable Energy Electricity

本文应用实物期权理论中的不确定性下的最优投资决策方法,并使用泊松过程描述政策的不确定性。本文把政策因素加入到最优投资决策模型中,建立政策不确定性模型体系,并研究政策不确定性对可再生能源发电企业投资决策的影响。本文通过数学推导证明和数值结果分析,得到政策的不确定性会提高投资临界值,降低可再生能源投资者的信心,导致不仅不能激励投资,反而阻碍投资(因为投资者不能把握政府的政策动态和政策信息)。而确定的激励政策能降低投资临界值,增强可再生能源投资者的信心,促进可再生能源的投资。

In this paper,based on the real option theory of optimal investment decision under uncertainty,the policy uncertainty is described by a Poisson process.policy factor into the optimal investment decision making is introduced,and then establish policy uncertainty model is estabhished,to deal with the effects of policy uncertainty on the investment decisions of the renewable energy's electronic industry.In this paper,through the mathematical proving and numerical analysis,the policy uncertainty could increase the investment threshold is concluded,and the investment confidence of the investors for renewable energy is decreased,thus the policy uncertainty couldn't encourage investment,and instead hinder investment(Because investors cannot grasp the trend of policy and the information of policy).The certainly incentive policy could decrease the value of the investment threshold,and increase the confidence of the investors for the renewable energy,and consequently stimulate investment on the renewable energy.