中美两国研发经费支出的协整分析

R&D Expenditure Cointegration Analysis of China and US

近年来,中国的国内生产总值和财政收入高速增长。中国政府为了实施依托科技和创新的战略,在研发经费支出上的投入也快速增加。本文利用协整检验的方法对1991年-2013年中国的国内生产总值、财政收入和研发经费支出的时间序列数据进行研究。分析结果表明国内生产总值与研发经费支出存在长期均衡关系,财政收入与研发经费支出也存在长期均衡关系。然后本文进一步运用ARIMA模型对中国和美国在可见未来的研发经费支出进行预测。结果表明中国的研发经费支出一直会跟美国有相当大的差距,且难以赶上美国。接下来,本文分析中国研发环境的下列三个缺陷:科研经费使用效率低,创新人力资源与经费不匹配,以及科技成果评价体系不科学。最后,文章给出改善中国研发环境的建议。

In recent years,Gross Domestic Product(GDP) and financial revenue of China grow rapidly. In order to implement the strategy of relying on science and technology innovation, the Chinese government has invested increasingly more in R&D expenditure. In this paper,the cointegration test approach is employed to analyze the time series data composed by the GDP, financial revenue and G&D expenditure of China. The results show that GDP and R&D expenditure in China has a long-term equilibrium relationship, while financial revenue and R&D expenditure in China also has a long-term equilibrium relationship.Afterwards, ARIMA model is utilized to forecast the R&D expenditure of China and US in the foreseeable future. The results suggest that there will be a relatively large gap between the R&D expenditure of China and that of US in the long run, and it is extremely difficult for China to catch up with US in R&D expenditure. Then, three flaws of the R&D environment in China are elabotatedas follows:(1) Inefficient usage of scientific research funds,(2) Mismatching of innovative human resources and scientific research funding,(3) Scientific research achievement evaluation system is unreasonable. Finally, recommendations are proposed for the improvement of R&D environment in China.