摘要
移动终端具有生命周期短、销售量波动性大、销售预测困难等显著特征。传统销售预测方法不能满足市场目前对于移动终端的预测需求。该研究以国内某销售移动终端设备的企业现实销售数据为基础,参考国内外生命周期建模方法,结合多种预测分析技术,利用经Bass扩散模型改进后的适用于短生命周期的s-bass建模方法对移动终端设备销售数据进行短生命周期建模。最后,数据测试验证了短生命周期建模方法的有效性,并为短生命周期产品的销售预测提供理论依据。
Mobile terminal has the notable features of short life cycle,large wave of sales,sales forecasting difficulties and so on. At present,Traditional sales forecasting methods cannot have satisfied the market for the predicting demand for mobile terminal. The study was based on the actual sales data for a domestic sales of mobile terminal devices,referenced the life cycle modeling methods at home and abroad,combined with a variety of forecast analysis technology, used the improved short life cycle modeling method s-bass method to build short life cycle modeling for mobile terminal device sales data. Research content has verified the effectiveness of the short life cycle of modeling methods,and provided theoretical basis for the sales forecasting of short life cycle products.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第S1期779-784,共6页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
河北省自然科学基金资助项目G2014202148
