广东省经济增长与工业三废关系研究——基于数量脱钩与速度脱钩的视角

Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Industrial Waste of Guangdong Province——based on the Quantity Decoupling and Speed Decoupling Perspectives

伴随着经济增长而产生的环境问题是各国在发展过程中不可避免的难题之一。脱钩理论可对经济增长与环境压力之间的关系进行定量分析,为制定环境管控政策提供依据。本文分析了广东省1985—2014年经济增长与工业三废排放间的关系,并对比数量脱钩与速度脱钩测度方法导致的环境管控政策差异。结果表明:广东省工业三废EKC曲线的转折点均出现在2010年后,未能凸显环境治理的后发优势;脱钩弹性系数在研究期限内呈波动变化,出现相对及绝对脱钩的次数较多。就测度方法而言,速度脱钩提前判断资源环境与经济增长"双赢"区间的出现时间,因此在制定环境政策时,应更多参考数量脱钩的分析结果。

Environmental problems with economic growth are the inevitable issues during the developing process. Decoupling theory can quantitatively analyze the relationship between economic growth and environmental pressure and provide evidence for policy formulation. This research analyzed the situation of Guangdong Province between 1985 and 2014 as well as the policy differences caused by quantity decoupling and speed decoupling. Results show that:the turning points of EKCs were after 2010 and the backwardness advantage of environmental government did not appear;decoupling elasticity coefficients fluctuated during research period with decoupling status emerged many times. As far as the measurement method is concerned,speed decoupling might misjudge the turning point of 'win-win' period by contrasting the differences between these two methods. Consequently, we should pay more attention to quantity decoupling results when making environmental policy.