复合系统的动态协同演化分析——以保险、信货与股票金融复合系统为例

Co-evolutionary Analysis on the Composite System of Insurance,Credit and Stock Markets

从系统论的视角出发,在保险、信贷与股票市场相互作用理论分析的基础上,将协同理论与基于动态邻居和局部搜索的粒子群算法(DNLPSO)相结合,构建了保险、信贷与股票金融复合系统动态协同演化模型,并运用此模型构建复合系统有序度计算公式,然后利用DNLPSO算法对模型进行求解,并对模型进行稳定性分析。模型既考虑了系统之间的非线性关系,同时加入结构变化参数和滞后参数以描述重大事件和系统的滞后影响。基于省际面板数据,利用该模型对我国2004-2013年保险、信贷与股票市场复合系统的协同演化现状进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,该模型能够很好地反映了各子系统的滞后项和2008年金融危机对复合系统协同演化进程的影响,完整地体现了该复合系统的局部竞争合作关系和长期趋于稳定性的整体特征,为三复合系统协同演化分析提供了一个研究范式。

The co-evolution analysis is critical for managers to understand the internal mechanism of composite system,without exception to financial system with insurance,banking and stock markets.There are only few researches on the issue of the composite system with two subsystems using time series,and how to assess the dynamic relationship of the composite system with three or more subsystems is underestimated.Especially,the lag effect across different subsystems is very common in the real world,and some economic and management policy as well as major events have remarkable effects on the operation of composite system.Furthermore,considering the fact that the sample in time series is always ineffective to estimate the coefficients in the co-evolutionary equation,it is necessary to propose a new method which can be applied to panel fata.To overcome the three drawbacks,in this paper,ageneral framework is built.Based on the theoretical analysis of the linkages among insurance,credit and stock markets,combining synergistic theory and the improved PSO based on dynamic neighbor topology and local search(DNLPSO),a dynamic co-evolution model is proposed for analyzing the development process of three opening multiplexed system.The computation method for order degree is constructed on the basis of DEAHP,and then the corresponding computational approach is given based on DNLPSO algorithm.Further,the stability analysis of the new co-evolutionary model is given.With the nonlinear relationship among differentsubsystems taken into consideration,the parameters of structural change and lag structures depict the impact of major events and lag effects.Using provincial penal data,the empirical study of coordination evolves in insurance,credit and stock composite systems covering 2004-2013 is unfolded.Results indicate that this model reflects the effects of lag structures and the 2008 financial crisis well,and manifests this complicated system's partial relevance and the whole evolution trends stable completely,and puts forward a basic paradigm for empirical analysis on co-evolution of three composite systems.