环保技术、节能减排政策对生态环境质量的动态效应及传导机制研究——基于三部门DSGE模型的数值分析

On the Dynamic Effect of Environmental Protection Technology,Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction Policy on Ecological Environmental Quality and Transmission Mechanism:Simulation Analysis Based on Three-sector DSGE Model

本文通过构建包含节能减排因素的三部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究环保技术、节能减排补贴、政府治污支出及厂商节能减排努力程度等措施对宏观经济的动态影响,尤其是对实际碳排放量、节能减排量和生态环境质量的影响,并在此基础上分析各项措施的传导机制。研究发现:(1)环保技术能够在实现经济增长的基础上,有效降低实际碳排放量和节能减排量,提高生态环境质量;(2)节能减排补贴仅在短期内对实际碳排放量与节能减排量有明显的抑制作用,长期影响相对较小,且对环境质量的影响也非常有限,同时表现出一定的延迟性;(3)政府治污支出的短期效应不显著,从长期看能够有效降低实际碳排放量,提高生态环境质量,但对宏观经济会产生负效应;(4)厂商减排努力程度的上升能够快速提升节能减排量,并有效降低实际碳排放规模,使得环境质量有效改善。总体上,环保技术与减排努力程度是影响环境质量的关键因素,提升厂商的环保技术水平与节能减排意识是有效改善生态环境质量的重中之重。

In recent years,the air pollution has seriously affected the sustainable development of China's economy,and the key to solve this problem is improving the environmental protection technology and implementing the effective environmental policy.In this paper′a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model containing energy saving and emissions reduction factors is buit,to research the dynamic effects of environmental technology,energy saving and emissions reduction subsidies,government spending and pollution treatment on China's macro economy,especially for the actual carbon emissions,energy conservation and emission reductions,and ecological environment quality.At the same time,the transmission mechanism of measures based on the impulse response of economic variables is analyzed.First of all,the parameters based are estimated on China's macro economic data by two ways,one is to estimate the static parameters by calibration,and the other is to estimate the dynamic parameters by the bayesian estimation method.Then,the parameter estimation results are used to simulate the theoretical model.The simulation results show that:(1)Improving environmental protection technology can reduce the actual carbon emissions and emission reductions,improve the quality of the ecological environment effectively with economic growth.(2)The energy saving and emissions reduction subsidy only has obvious inhibitory effect on actual carbon emissions and emission reductions in the short term,the long-term effect is relatively smaller,and has a little impact on the environment quality,and show some delay at the same time.(3)Government pollution spending has little effect in the short-term,can effectively reduce the actual carbon emissions in the long-term,and improve the ecological environment quality,but has the negative effects on macro economy.(4)The efforts degree of manufacturer rising can quickly improve energy saving and emission reductions,and effectively reduce the actual scale of carbon emissions,and effectively improve environmental quality.Overall,the environmental protection technology and efforts degree of manufacturer are the key factors of affecting the environment quality.Raising the environmental protection technology and the degree efforts of manufacturers' energy saving and emissions reduction are the key of effectively improving ecological environmental quality.The research provides useful guidance for enterprises to make investment in the environmental protection technology and government make effective policy in energy saving and emission reduction.