企业信用内生网络模型及其演化研究

An Endogenous Network Model of Enterprise Credit and Its Evolution

本文考虑上游企业和下游企业两个部门,通过构建企业内生网络模型研究企业间信用关联内在形成机制及其演化特征。通过对内生网络模型仿真研究,结果表明本文构建的模型重现了现实企业系统存在的一些特征:企业信用网络度分布服从幂律分布,该网络具有无标度特征;较长的合并周期则能更好地反映企业间信用关系,且随着合并周期变大,网络密度也显著增大;企业资产规模分布具有幂律尾部特征,企业资产增长率随时间演化逐渐呈收敛状,且其概率分布近似于正态分布。

There are many relationships among enterprises in the socio-economic system,such as credit relationships and guarantees relationships among enterprises,which forms complex connections among enterprises.Theses complex connections bring many economic benefits to the development of enterprises,butthey also provide a medium for risk contagion among enterprises.Network theory provides a new research perspective for the inter-enterprise correlations.Based on actual data,it has found that there are some typical network structural characteristics among enterprises,such as scale-free networks.Revealing the micro-mechanism of the formation of enterprise networks helps to understand their structural characteristics.Therefore,in this paper,the upstream and downstream enterprises are considered,and an endogenous network model is constructed to study the internal formation mechanism and evolvement characteristics of inter-enterprise credit connections.Through simulation analysis of the endogenous network model,the results show that the model constructed in this paper reproduces the characteristics of the enterprise system in real life:the degree distribution of enterprise credit network is a power-law distribution,and this means the network is a scale-free network;longer aggregation periods might be preferable to have a better description of inter-enterprise credit relationships,and the network density increases with the increase of the aggregation period;the distribution of enterprise assets has the power-law tail,and the asset growth rate of enterprises gradually converges with time,and its probability distribution is approximate to the normal distribution.The key research of this paper is to explain the formation mechanism of enterprise credit network,which is one of the main contents of network theory research.Moreover,this study is the basis for further research on related practical issues,such as constructing enterprise evolution systems based on network theory to study the effect of economic policies.