借款陈述文字中的违约信号——基于P2P网络借贷的实证研究

The Signal of Default Risk from the Description-text Based on the Empirical Research of P2P Lending

P2P借贷让借款人可以通过借款陈述文本去获得投资者的信任,所以借款陈述又成为投资者识别借款人违约风险的重要信息来源。但是如何解读复杂的、不规则的、包含各种信息的借款陈述面临较大挑战。针对违约风险的两个来源:还款能力和还款意愿,以及它们的潜在因素,从P2P借贷平台‘人人贷’借款项目中的借款陈述文本中,通过人工识别提取了文字特征信息、反映还款能力和还款意愿的信息以及对资金需求的情感特征信息,并检验这些信息对识别借款人违约风险的显著性。研究发现借款陈述文本的字数越多、存在重复语句,违约风险越大;借款陈述文本中存在还款能力信息,或者同时存在表示还款意愿的保证性语言以及对自己信用状态补充说明的信息,则违约风险越小;借款人在情感上表现出对资金需求的急切性越高,违约风险越大。研究结论为将来运用程序实现智能文本算法识别借款陈述文本中的违约信息提供了研究方向。

P2 Plending let borrowers to obtain trust of investors through a description-text of borrower.So the description-text of borrower is an important information for investors to identify default risk of borrowers.However,how to interpret description-text with the complex,irregular and contain various kinds of information faces great challenges.According to the two factors of default risk:repayment ability and willingness to repay,as well as their potential factors,some text features,information of repayment ability and willingness to repay as well as emotional characteristics of the demand for funds are extracted from description-texts through manual identification,and the significance of those information to identify the default risk of borrowers is tested.It is found that the more words in the description-text,the more repetition sentences existing,and the default risk is greater.There is information of repayment ability or the guarantee language indicating the willingness to repay the loan and the supplementary explanation of the credit status in the description-text,the default risk is smaller.The greater the urgency of the borrower’s emotionally expressed need for the loan,the greater the default risk is.The conclusion of the research provides the research direction for the future application of intelligent text algorithm to identify the default information in the description-text related borrowing.