绿色供应链中不对称需求预测下的信息共享研究

Information Sharing in a Green Supply Chain with Asymmetric Demand Forecasts

研究了由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的绿色供应链和他们的需求预测信息共享问题。考虑了两种方案:订货型生产方案和库存型生产方案,两种方案下分别考虑了无信息共享和信息共享两种情况。分析了预测信息对两种方案下制造商利润、零售商利润和信息共享价值的影响,同时研究了绿色成本系数对信息共享的影响。研究表明,两种方案中制造商始终能从信息共享中获利,而零售商只有在制造商绿色成本系数较低时才会自愿共享预测信息。当绿色成本系数较高时,制造商可以通过一个讨价还价合同,促进零售商进行信息共享。当绿色成本系数很高时,供应链成员之间不存在信息共享。此外,库存型生产方案中信息共享带来的总收益增量要高于订货型生产方案,因此,库存型生产方案中参与者信息共享的可能性要高于订货型生产方案。

Due to the rapid changes in business environment,it is difficult for green supply chain members to make accurate decisions in the face of highly uncertain market conditions.However,supply chain members can forecast uncertain market demand based on past sales data.Given this background,aproblem of information sharing under asymmetric demand forecasting in green supply chain is studied.Two scenarios are investigated:the'make-to-order'scenario and the'make-to-stock'scenario,considering two situations:with information sharing and without information sharing.The optimal decision and optimal expected profit of the manufacturers and retailers in several cases are obtained.Through the comparison of the optimal expected profits,it is found the value of information sharing and a bargaining mechanism can coordinate the supply chain.The research shows thatmanufacturers are always profitable from information sharing in both scenarios.Unlike previous studies,retailers can also benefit from information sharing when the green cost factor is low.When the green cost factor is high,manufacturers can promote retailers to share information through a bargaining contract.Additionally,when the green cost factor is high,there is no information sharing between members of the green supply chain.Furthermore,the increase of total revenue brought by information sharing in'make-to-stock'scenario is higher than that of the total revenue in'make-to-order'scenario.Therefore,the possibility of participant information sharing in the'make-to-stock'scenario is higher than that of the'make-to-order'scenario.Finally,the sensitivity analysis of some parameters influences the accuracy and correlation of the forecast information on the profit of the manufacturer,the value of the manufacturer’s information sharing,and the value of the information sharing of the supply chain.