针对站点人流爆发的公交运营策略优化研究

Optimization of Bus Operational Strategy for Explosive Passenger Flow

为应对公交大力发展情形下涌现的公交供需不平衡问题,重点关注公交站点爆发性人流问题的解决,考虑供需严重失衡下的公交运营策略改进,以扩充线路公交运力,减轻站点爆发性人流对公交系统的冲击。所提人流爆发站点主要包括大型集会场所、商场及景区周边等具有预知性人流爆发可能的站点。运营策略改进方法主要是通过在原有公交线路基础上,布设区间小线路的方式,与大线路形成协调运营关系,共同完成线路站点的爆发性人流疏散,具体包括公交大线路运营优化、区间小线路规划及前二者的结合3种。为获得研究区域内全面、有效的线路运营策略,以社会福利最大化为目标建立非线性整数规划模型,求解大、小线路最优发车间隔及增配车辆数,并引进系统弹复性指数作为模型求解结果良莠的评价指标。为证明该运营策略优化方法的有效性,以哈尔滨市中心城区为研究区域,解决该区域站点人流爆发问题。通过模型构建、求解及结果评价,发现经策略改进后,区域爆发线路弹复性指数较优化之前提高35%,运营策略改进后的社会福利值较不优化情况提高2倍,所提运营策略优化方法在不同乘客规模及不同限制条件下均能够起到一定的系统维稳作用,运营策略改进方法能够缓解站点爆发性人流。

With the rapid development of public transit,an imbalance in supply and demand occurs more frequently. This study focused on the issue of explosive passenger flows at bus stations and endeavored to optimize the bus operational strategy for addressing the high imbalance in demand and supply. The study further aimed to find a universal method for expanding the capacity of the bus line to accommodate explosive passenger flows at stations and reduce the adverse impact on the bus system. Stations investigated in this study were mainly in the vicinity of large-scale gathering places, such as shopping malls and scenic spots. Optimization of the operational strategy involved building a shuttle line based on the normal bus line, and coordinating the evacuation of explosive passenger flows with the normal line operation. The strategy included a combination of normal line operation optimization and shuttle line planning. In order to obtain a comprehensive and effective line operational strategy in the study area, a nonlinear integer programming model was developed with the aim of maximizing social welfare to determine the best headway and the optimal number of additional vehicles. System resilience was used as the evaluation index of the model. In order to prove the effectiveness of the optimization model, Harbin city center was chosen as the research area for solving the explosive passenger flow problem. A model was constructed, solved, and evaluated. After optimization of the bus operational strategy, the resilience of the line that carries explosive passenger flows increases by 35% and the social welfare doubles. The operational strategy mentioned above can enhance system management for varying passenger numbers and different constraints. The proposed method can alleviate explosive passenger flows at bus stations.