摘要
该文首先改进了认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM),根据海洋工程领域的作业特点修改了共同绩效条件(CPC),把共同绩效条件对人因可靠性的影响进行区分,建立新的总体人误概率计算方法。其次结合马尔科夫(Markov)理论推导出人误概率和时间的关系函数,并建立考虑时间因素的人误概率定量计算方法。实例分析表明,该方法的适用性和可靠性是合理有效的。
This work improved cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)by modifying the common performance conditions(CPC)based on the characters of ocean engineering,separated the influence of the CPC,and then derived a method for calculating overall human error probability.A function was constructed between human error probability and time by combining the method above and Markov property.Quantitative method to calculate human error probability considering time factor was established.An analysis of the example was given,and the results showed the quantitative method is reasonably and effective.
出处
《中国海洋平台》
2016年第1期73-77,85,共6页
China offshore Platform
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(NO.2014CB046804)
国家自然科学基金项目(NO.51239008)
国家自然科学基金(NO.51379145)
