全球黄金供需格局变迁

The changes in the global gold supply and demand structure

中国已成为全球黄金第一大消费国,且黄金静态保障能力有限。本文通过分析近五十年来全球黄金供需格局的变化,对我国黄金所处局势予以判断。目前黄金供应国虽仍以金矿资源丰富的国家为主,但是生产重心已发生变化,老牌黄金生产国产量已出现下滑,中国已经成为全球第一大黄金生产国;黄金的需求市场则发生"西金东移",由欧美地区转向亚太地区。预计未来全球黄金产量增长缓慢或已达到产量峰值,而亚太地区的黄金消费量特别是中国的黄金消费量仍呈增加之势。

China has become the largest gold consumer in the world in 2013 ,and gold guaranteecapacity is limited .In the paper ,the author analyzed the change of global gold supply and demand pattern for nearlyfivedecades and gaveajudgement tothe situation .Nowadays the gold suppliers are still the countries which were rich in gold resources .The global gold production center had changed .The production in the old gold producing country had declined .China has become the largest gold producer in the world .The gold demand market had transferred from the west to the east .The global gold demand market had been obviously a shift from European and American area to Asian-Pacific region .The author predicts that global gold production grows slowly or has reached the peak ,and gold demand in Asian-Pacific region is still increasing especially in China .