中国省际能源消费与产业结构关系研究:基于面板技术

Analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and industry structure:a provincial perspective based on panel data

本文从省际视角出发,采用面板协整检验和面板回归模型方法对中国18个省面板数据进行能源消费与产业结构约束关系研究。研究发现,省际间三次产业产出与其能源消费存在约束关系。能源消费弹性系数以第二产业最高,其次是第三产业,第一产业最低,且第一产业能源消费弹性系数为0.2~0.6;第二产业为0.5~1.0;第三产业为0.4~0.7。此外,第一二产业比第三产业对能源消费的初始依赖度较高。未来,巨大的能源需求带来严峻的挑战,一方面降低对煤炭、石油、天然气等化石能源的依赖,大力发展清洁能源和优化能源消费结构,另一方面做到提高能源使用效率和优化经济结构相结合。

This study investigates the constraint relationship between energy consumption and industry structure in 18 provinces using panel cointegration test and panel regression model.The results indicates that the constraint relationship between provincial three industrial output and their energy consumption exists.The highest elastic coefficient of energy consumption is the secondary industry followed by the tertiary industry,while the lowest is the primary industry.And the coefficient range of energy consumption in the primary,secondary and tertiary industry is 0.2 ~ 0.6,0.5 ~ 1.0 and 0.4 ~ 0.7,respectively.Furthermore,the initial energy consumption dependence in the primary and secondary industry is higher than in the tertiary industry.Thus,facing significant challenges from huge energy demand in the future,we not only reduce the dependence on fossil energy,vigorously develop clean energy and optimize the energy consumption structure,but also combine energy efficiency improvement and economic structure optimization.