牛群结构模型的建立及不同因素对奶牛生产经济效益的影响

Establishment of the Herd Structural Model and the Effect of Different Factors on the Economic Benefits of Dairy Cows Production

为评价管理、政策、价格、技术进步对奶牛养殖经济效益的影响,本研究以存栏的生产母牛数、青年牛数、育成牛数、犊牛数为基础建立牛群结构模型,假设牛群规模从年初到年终保持不变。结果表明,利用该模型可以分析单因素及多因素变化对经济效益的影响。实证分析了牛群结构、繁殖率、犊牛成活率、牛奶产量、牛奶价格、饲草料价格变化对销售收入、成本、利润变化的影响。研究表明,产奶量对生产母牛的盈利情况影响程度最大,其次为生产母牛比例、繁殖率、牛奶价格、饲草料价格,犊牛成活率影响程度最小。

To evaluate the effect of management, policy, price, technical advances on dairy farming economic beneifts, assuming that the herd size remains unchanged from the beginning to the end, the herd structure model based on the number of milking cows, heifers, breeding cattle and calves was established. The model can analyze the impact of a single factor and multivariate change on economic changes. The effects of herd structure, reproduction rate, calf survival rate, milk production, the price of milk and the forage price on the sales revenue, increase in cost and the proift was empirically analyzed in this study. Results showed that the most important factor inlfuencing the proift was milk production and then were the ratio of producing cow, the reproduction rate, the price of milk and the forage price. The minimum impact factor was calf survival rate.