气候变化对新疆酿酒葡萄种植气候区划的影响

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WINE GRAPE- PLANTING CLIMATIC DIVISION IN XINJIANG

研究气候变化背景下新疆酿酒葡萄种植气候区划的变化,对适应气候变化,科学制定新疆酿酒葡萄发展规划,促进新疆葡萄酒产业的持续稳定发展具有重要意义。利用新疆101个气象站1961~2014年的历史气候资料,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于Arc GIS的混合插值法,在对近54年新疆无霜冻期、4~9月干燥度指数和大风日数时空变化进行分析的基础上,结合酿酒葡萄种植气候区划指标,对气候变化背景下新疆酿酒葡萄种植气候区划的变化进行了分析。研究结果表明:新疆无霜冻期表现为"南疆长,北疆短;平原和盆地长,山区短"、4~9月干燥度为"平原和盆地大,山区小"、4~9月大风日数呈现"北疆多,南疆少;东部和西部多,中部少;峡谷和山口地带多,平原地区少"的空间分布特点。近54年,新疆无霜冻期总体以3.57d/10a的倾向率呈显著(α=0.001)增多趋势,并于1997年发生了突变。4~9月干燥度和大风日数分别以-0.40/10a和-3.10d/10a的倾向率呈显著(α=0.001)减小(少)趋势,且分别于1987年和1986年发生了突变。受其影响,1997年后较其之前,新疆酿酒葡萄最适宜种植区减小了6.201万km^2,占比减小3.7个百分点;适宜种植区增大了25.63万km^2,占比增大15.4个百分点;次适宜种植区和不宜种植区分别缩小了7.432万km^2和11.99万km^2,占比分别减小4.4和7.2个百分点。气候变化对新疆酿酒葡萄种植的影响既有利也有弊,但总体来说利大于弊。适宜区面积明显扩大,次适宜和不适宜区面积明显减小,这对促进新疆酿酒葡萄种植业以及葡萄酒产业发展具有重要意义,但最适宜种植区面积略有减小又会产生一定不利影响。

Under the background of climate change,the changes of climatic zoning of wine grape planting in Xinjiang have important significance in adapting climate change,fully rational use of agricultural climate resources,and promoting the sustainable and stable development of the Xinjiang wine grape industry. In this paper,based on climatic data from 101 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014,the fundamental spatial- temporal change characteristic of annual frost- free dates,aridity and strong wind days from April to September were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression,accumulative anomaly,T- test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on Arc GIS. And then the impact of climate change on wine grape planting zoning was studied by combining with the wine grape planting climate division index. The main results showed,spatial distribution of annual frost- free dates,aridity and strong wind days had very obvious difference in Xinjiang. Generally,annual frost- free dates and aridity in south were higher than that in north,and higher in plain and basin region than that in mountain regions. Strong wind days were more in canyon and mountain pass in north,east and west than that in plain and basin regions. In recent 54 years,the annual frost- free dates increased with a rate of 3. 57 d /10 a,while the aridity and strong wind days decreased with rates of- 0. 40 /10 a and- 0. 31 d /10 a,but it had mutation in 1997,1987 and 1986,respectively. The most suitable areas of wine grape planting decreased 6. 201 × 10~4km^2 with 3. 7%,the suitable areas increased 2. 563× 10~5km^2 with 15. 4%,and the sub- suitable areas and unsuitable areas decreased 7. 432 × 10~4km^2 and 1. 199 × 10~5km^2,with 4. 4% and 7. 2%,respectively. The climate change had positive and negative effects on wine grape planting in Xinjiang region,but overall the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. This had important significance in promoting wine grape industry development.