丝绸之路经济带沿线国家协同发展的驱动因素——基于哈肯模型的分阶段研究

The Driving Forces of Regional Synergistic Development in the Silk Road Economic Belt:Empirical Study by Stages Based on Haken Model

对影响丝绸之路经济带沿线国家实现协同发展的驱动因素进行识别,探索沿线国家在协同发展进程中经济增长动力、市场分割程度、资源配置等方面存在的不适应,有助于准确认识和把握沿线国家的协同发展规律。本文立足于区域协同发展的特征,基于区域比较优势的空间关联及其内在扩散作用机理,从比较优势(RCA)、经济联系(RER)和价值链分割(RVS)三个维度构建理论模型,运用哈肯模型实证分析2008-2012和2013-2017十年间两阶段影响丝绸之路经济带沿线42个主要国家协同发展的驱动因素并进行分阶段识别序参量。结果表明:丝绸之路经济带沿线国家比较优势演化存在显著的关联性,沿线国家协同发展的序参量由2008-2012年第一阶段的RCA转变为2013-2017年第二阶段的RCA和RVS,实现了由单一驱动机制转向多重驱动机制的协同演变,沿线国家协同发展进程进入了新阶段,协同程度整体上由低协同状态上升为高协同状态;市场分割程度降低,得益于沿线国家技术差距的缩小以及技术溢出水平的提高;协同发展的国际市场环境逐渐开放并得以优化;丝绸之路经济带核心区、重要区与拓展区协同发展水平的差距在逐渐缩小。研究结论旨在为沿线各国加快构建协同发展创新机制与合作协同体系,以及解决丝路沿线不平衡、不充分的发展之间的矛盾提供理论参考。

Identification of the driving factors affecting the coordinated development among the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is helpful to accurately understand and grasp the pattern of cooperative development.This paper constructs a theoretical model based on spatial correlation of regional comparative advantage and its intrinsic diffusion mechanism with Three dimensions,Concluding Regional Comparative Advantage(RCA),Economic Relationship Relation(RER) and Regional Value Chain Segmentation(RVS).Haken model is used to discuss the driving forces of regional economic synergistic development in the Silk Road Economic Belt of two stages 2008-2012 and 2013-2017 respectively.The results show that the order parameters of the coordinated development have changed from RCA in 2008-2012 to RCA and RVS in 2013-2017,which indicates that the coordinated development of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has entered a new stage.Compared with the first five years of 2008-2012,showing that the environment of coordinated development is gradually optimized;the degree of coordinated development among the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has risen from low-coordinated to high-coordinated in general,as the result of technology improvement;the gap between the core area,the important area and the expansion area of the Silk Road Economic Belt is gradually narrowing.