基于OLG模型的公共养老金最优企业缴费率研究

Research on Optimal Enterprise Contribution Based on OLG Model

优化企业缴费率,是推动公共养老金制度改革,确保社保基金动态平衡的重要前提。基于OLG模型,以湖南省城镇养老保险为研究对象,实证研究最优企业缴费率的调整策略。实证研究结果表明,预期寿命增长将提高企业缴费率,人口增长率下滑将降低最优企业缴费率,并且后者的影响大于前者。在两因素共同作用下,预计在未来25年,平均预期寿命将从73.8岁增加到77.2岁,随着人口增长率的不断降低,最优企业缴费率将从目前的20%降低到10.04%。最优企业缴费率的研究,为宏观经济政策提供了理论依据和政策支持。

Optimizing enterprise contribution is the key factor both for insuring the dynamic balance of social security fund and promoting the reforming of public pension system. This paper has made a research on optimal enterprise contribution based on OLG model, taking Hunan province for example. The empirical result showed that life expectancy growth would raise optimal enterprise contribution, while population growth rate would decline the optimal contribution. Nevertheless,the latter factor made more influence. If both two factors were introduced in the equilibrium equation,the optimal enterprise contribution would be reduced from 20% to 10. 04%,when life expectancy increased from 73. 8 to 77. 2 and population growth rate declined in the 2030 by prediction. Research on optimal enterprise contribution provides theory basis and the policy support for macroeconomic policy making and pension reforming promoting.