基于协整分析的我国“十二五”水污染防治投资预测

The Forecast of Water Pollution Controlling Investment in China During the “Twelfth Five Year Plan”Based on Cointegration Analysis

"六五"至"十五"期间,我国水污染防治逐年发展起来。"十一五"期间我国水污染防治取得较大进展,"十二五"期间我国将进一步加大对水污染防治的投资,确保减排目标实现,水质继续有所改善。本文对三种预测方法进行了比较筛选,并对2006-2008年水污染防治投资进行分解采集。根据2001-2008年水污染防治投资数据,经协整分析,我国水污染防治投资与GDP呈长期均衡关系。基于此均衡关系,本文对"十二五"期间我国水污染防治投资进行了初步预测,结果表明:"十二五"期间我国水污染防治投资约为1万亿元,预测结果较为合理,方法较其它预测方法更为合适。基于以上研究,提出"十二五"期间我国水污染防治工作相关建议。

Water pollution controlling gradually developed from'Sixth Five Year Plan'to'Tenth Five Year Plan'in China. During the 'Eleventh Five Year Plan'period,the water pollution controlling made great progress. The investment will be increased in order to ensure the emission reduction targets and achieve water quality improved during the'Twelfth Five Year Plan'period in China. This article compares the three forecasting methods,decomposes the water pollution controlling investment from 2006 to 2008. According to the data of water pollution controlling investment from 2001 to 2008,the cointegration analysis shows that long-term equilibrium relationship exists between water pollution controlling investment and GDP. Based on the equilibrium relationship,the research predicts the water pollution controlling investment during the'Eleventh Five Year Plan'period and draws the relevant conclusions. The result shows that water pollution control investment is about one trillion during the'Eleventh Five Year Plan'period in China. Prediction is reasonable, and the method is more appropriate than other methods. This research put forward related recommendations for water pollution controlling work during the'Twelfth Five Year Plan'period.