基于系统动力学的氧化铝行业风险识别研究

Research on Risk Identification of Aluminum Industry Based on System Dynamic

作为国民经济的重要基础性产业,氧化铝行业近年来在国内外复杂的经济形势下面临的行业风险越来越严峻。借鉴系统论思想,将氧化铝行业视为一个复杂自适应系统,将氧化铝行业风险系统划分为资源风险子系统、成本风险子系统、销售风险子系统以及环境风险子系统,构建了氧化铝行业风险分析的系统动力学模型。基于所构建的系统动力学模型,借助Vensim软件,受篇幅所限仅以销售风险为例,详细识别了造成销售风险的因素和风险发生后引起的后果,以及风险发生后通过系统内部调节后对行业的影响。研究证明了系统动力学在氧化铝行业风险识别中的可行性和优越性。

As an important basic industry in the national economy,alumina industry confronts more and more severe industry risk under the complex economical and political situations in recent years. By the method of system theory,this paper considers alumina industry as a complex system and divides the alumina industry risk system into resource risk subsystem,environment risk subsystem,cost risk subsystem and marketing risk subsystem. Then we construct the system dynamics model to analyze the risk of alumina industry. Based on the constructed system dynamics model and the tool of Vensim,we take marketing risk as an example only because of the limited length. We identify the factors which cause marketing risk,what will happen,when the marketing risk occurs,and how are the influences on the industry after the system internal control. Our study proves that using system dynamics to identify the risk alumina industry is feasibility and superiority.