基于灰色预测的深圳文化创意产业发展对经济增长贡献研究

On the Contribution of the Development of Shenzhen Cultural Creative Industry to Economic Growth Based on the Gray Prediction

文化创意产业具有高附加值、强渗透性的特点,对区域经济增长的贡献越来越大。深圳市创意产业发展迅速,2010年文化创意产业占GDP的比重达到6.7%,已成为深圳市经济增长的重要力量。本文在分析文化创意产业内涵的基础上,深入剖析深圳文化创意产业对区域经济增长的影响,并利用灰色预测模型预测未来5年深圳市文化创意产业对区域经济增长的贡献。

With the characteristics of high additional value and strong permeability,the cultural and creative industry has made increasing contributions to the regional economic growth. Shenzhen creative industry has developed so rapidly that the ratio of the cultural and creative industry to GDP was up to 6. 7% in 2010,which means that it already become an important force for Shenzhen economic growth. Based on the analysis of the connotation of cultural and creative industry,the paper focuses on the influences of Shenzhen cultural and creative industry on the regional economic growth,and applies the grey prediction model to predict the contribution that Shenzhen cultural and creative industry will make to the regional economic growth in the next five years.