低碳技术发展路线图及优选模型研究综述

Overview of Low-carbon Technology Roadmap Optimization Model

面对能源安全的严峻形势、气候变化的威胁和发展中国家不断增长的能源需求,作为有效识别市场需求、预测技术发展前景和技术发展适宜性的有效工具,低碳技术发展路线图成为政府和相关研究机构重点关注对象之一。本文通过综述低碳技术发展路线图构建方法与模型,分析当前研究缺乏全面性、科学性、合理性,指明应用MARKAL模型定量化研究低碳技术发展路线图的研究方向。

With energy security,climate change and the threat of growing energy demand in developing countries,low-carbon technology roadmap as an effective tool which can effectively identify market demand,forecast technology development prospects and suitability,becomes one of key issues that government and relevant research institutions focus on. This paper summarized the development of low-carbon technology roadmap construction method and model,analyzed the lack of comprehensiveness science,rationality of the current research,and finally pointed out research direction that quantitatively study low-carbon technology roadmap by using MARKAL model.