廊坊市春季气温精细化预报订正

Precision Forecasting Correction of Spring Temperatures in Langfang

利用廊坊市2001-2012年云量、降水、光照时间、气温等地面观测资料根据统计学分析方法对廊坊市阴雨、雾霾、大风等5种天空状况进行分类,讨论相应天气类型下气温的时空分布特征。分析表明不同天气类型下,最低气温和最高气温分布差别明显,尤其是最低气温,晴天微风天气时,郊外站点最低气温比市区低2℃以上,而阴雨天气时各站温差却小于1℃。此外,本文通过差值统计对各种天气型的欧洲中心温度预报进行经验性订正,得到相应的修正值区间。结合数值预报和统计出的本地气候特征,对廊坊市各站最低、最高气温进行逐步订正,最终得到廊坊市气温的精细化预报,预报准确率有了明显的提高。

According to the ground observation data in Langfang from 2001 to 2012 that includes cloudiness,precipitation,exposure time,temperature and other,the following items are analyzed using Statistical Methods: Five kinds of sky conditions classification: rain,fog,haze,high winds,etc. The papre discusses spatial and temporal characteristics of the temperature in all styles. The results show that in different weather types,the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature have different distribution,especially,minimum temperature. In sunny breeze weather,the minimum temperature in the suburbs is 2 ℃ lower than in urban areas,while in rainy weather the temperature difference is less than 1 ℃. In addition,with the statistical methods the interval correction value of EC temperature in850hPa is calculated. Combining EC forecast of the temperature with the local climate characteristics,we revised the minimum temperature and maximum temperature gradually and get the delicacy forecast about the temperature in langfang. The forecast accuracy has been significantly improved.