摘要
交通运输业的能源消耗和碳排放控制是经济可持续发展的重要问题,交通运输依靠科技进步和适应国民经济的发展和调整将逐步实现绿色低碳的变革,这是经济系统相互联系互为驱动的系统运行过程。本文依据系统运行趋势,利用灰色关联度研究了运输业能源强度与第一、第二、第三产业的关系和影响因素,结果表明交通运输业与第三产业的关联度最大,并应用GM(1,1)模型描述了运输业能源强度的未来时间响应函数。研究结果与运用的协整分析,因素分解等方法基本一致,且更直观地表现出宏观经济的协调性和统一性。
The control of energy consumption and carbon emissions in transportation industry is the major problem of sustainable economic development. Relying on the technology progress and the adjustment to adapt national economic growth,transportation industry will achieve the low-carbon revolution gradually,which is an operation process in the closely associated economic system. Based on the system operation trend,this paper uses the grey correlation degree to investigate the relationship and influencing factors between transportation energy intensity and the primary,secondary and tertiary industry. The results indicate that the correlation degree among transportation industry and the tertiary industry is the largest. Moreover,this article employs GM( 1,1) to develop the future time response functions of energy intensity in transportation industry. The results perform the coordination and unity of macro economy more directly,and prove consistent with the findings coming from cointegration analysis and factors decomposition approaches.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第S3期5-9,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目"适应新型城镇化的低碳交通运输发展战略与政策研究"
关键词
绿色低碳
交通产业
结构能源
强度预测
integrated transport
green low-carbon
Grey Model
energy intensity
