枣庄电网日负荷与气象因素的关系及其预测

A Relationship between Daily Load and Meteorological Factors for Zaozhuang Power Network and Forecasting

利用枣庄市2005-2012年逐日的供电负荷资料与气象要素资料,分析了枣庄的供电负荷特性,并分析了分离出的气象负荷和各气象要素的关系。结果表明:枣庄平均每天的18时是用电负荷的顶峰,深夜23点为用电量的谷底。每年12月份用电量为峰值,7、8两月为次峰值,2月为谷值。气温与气象负荷的相关性最好,相对湿度与气象负荷的相关性要好于降水量;相关性最好的月份均为7、8月份。最后建立了负荷预测模型,取得了比较满意的预测效果。

The characteristics of electricity consumption of Zaozhuang,and the relationship of the meteorological load deduced from electricity consumption and meteorological factors were analyzed according to daily data from 2005 to 2012. Results showed that the peak of electricity consumption was at 18 O'clock and the bottom is at 23 O'clock every day,and the peak of electricity consumption appeared in December,the second peak was July and August,the bottom was February each year. The relation between temperature and meteorological load was the most significant,and the humidity with meteorological load is more significant than precipitation's. The best relations are all found in July and August. At last the forecast model of electricity consumption is established,which has got a satisfactory results for the daily load.