伊春市可持续发展系统仿真模拟与调控研究

The Study on the Simulation and Adjustment of Sustainable Development System in Yichun City

运用系统动力学方法对伊春市资源环境与经济相互关系进行仿真模拟,得到伊春市未来20年的发展趋势。目前伊春的发展态势未达到良好或优质水平,社会经济与资源环境协调发展仍存诸多问题,工业、林业的发展还需进一步巩固与稳定;基于持续发展取向,依据仿真结果设定了伊春市持续发展的常规发展模式、适度发展模式与经济高速发展模式三种方案,筛查选取了适度发展模式作为伊春市未来20年发展的最佳方案,为实现方案顺利实施,研究从人口、经济、与资源环境三个方面提出伊春市发展战略设计,有效调控发展走势。

We used system dynamics method to simulate the relationship between environment and economic resources to obtain the development trend of the next 20 years. The current development trend of Yichun City has not reached the level of development as good or excellent. The coordinated development between socio-economic and environmental resources still has many problems. Industry and forestry development needs to be further consolidated and stabilized. Based on the sustainable development,we set three scenarios including the conventional development model,the moderate development program and the rapid economic development program according to the results of the simulation. Screening selected moderate development program as the best solution of the future development in Yichun City to the next 20 years. To achieve the smooth implementation of research programs,the study put forward the development strategy design of Yichun City from three aspects such as the population,economy,resources and environment to regulate the development trend effectively.