天津市海洋资源承载力定量分析研究

The Quantitative Analysis of Ocean Resource Carrying Capacity of Tianjin City

通过构建科学的海洋资源承载力指标体系,对天津市2006-2011年海洋资源承载力及细分指标进行了定量分析。结果发现,天津市海洋资源供给能力和海洋生态环境支撑能力逐渐下降,分别接近和已经达到超载状态、海洋经济社会发展能力和海洋管理能力日益提升,处于适载状态、且后两者上升幅度大于前两者下降幅度,天津市海洋资源承载力逐渐上升。为了促进天津海洋经济的可持续发展,在海洋经济上,调整海洋产业结构,向三高方向发展、在海洋生态环境上,严格海域使用和管理,积极探索建立生态补偿制度、在海洋管理能力上,加快海洋经济管理体制的改革,实施大海洋战略。

By constructing a scientific index system,the paper quantitative analyzes ocean resource carrying capacity and its segmenting index by making use of comprehensive weighting adjustment method,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and factor analysis method during 2006-2011. The result reveal that ocean resource supply capacity and ecological environment support capacity are declining gradually and get to reach and pass the over load level separately,ocean economic development capacity and ocean management capacity are increasing and reach suitable load level,and the increasing range of latter two index is more bigger than that of declining range of the former two index. The ocean resource carrying capacity of Tianjin is increasing with the time. In order to push the ocean economy sustainable growth,several measurements should be taken which included adjusting ocean industrial structure and running toward'three-high'in the field of ocean economy,using and managing strictly and building exploratory ecological compensation system in the field of ecological environment,accelerating reform of the ocean management system and carrying out big ocean strategy in the field of ocean managing.